Is China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) behind the Gaza Crisis?

How China, Israel and Saudi Arabia intend to benefit from driving the Palestinians out of the Gaza Strip?

With the horrible events of October 7th now one month behind us, perhaps it’s time to take a more cool-headed and broader look at what has transpired during the last 4,5 weeks.

The initial reaction was that everybody thought that this was the beginning of World War 3, and all the usual fearmongering suspects on everybody’s favorite ‘alternative’ media outlet started posting doomsday scenarios about $200 oil prices, crashing stock markets, and atomic mushroom clouds all over the Middle East.

• Israel was going to be fighting on two fronts: one in Gaza, the other in Southern Lebanon against Hezbollah,

• Iran was going to defend Hezbollah,

• The US was going to get involved and bomb Iran and perhaps Hezbollah proxies in Syria,

• Russia was going to get involved to defend their ally Bashar al Assad in Syria,

• Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and just about the entire Muslim world was going to declare war on Israel.

So here we are, almost 6 weeks later, what happened…? To call this a Big Nothing Burger would be an insult to all the dead and wounded people on both sides of this conflict, but let’s just say that the the predictions of “World War 3” have been a tiny bit exaggerated to say the least.

• Israeli troops are slowly inching their way into Gaza, aided by almost indiscriminate bombing,

• Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah’s speeches have been remarkably passive

• Most of the leaders of Muslim nations have tamed their voices

• The US ‘parked’ some aircraft carriers (Carrier Strike Groups) in the Mediterranean but so far have abstained from any strikes

• Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has issued a statement that Russia has MiG 31K’s operating over the Black Sea armed with hypersonic Kinzhal missiles that can reach targets in the Mediterranean.

• After the initial outrage, protests in Europe and the United States of pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli groups have quieted down

So what’s next? In order to find out what could be next we have to first look at the inevitable cui bono, who benefits in this geopolitical game of Middle Eastern chess?

China has been working hard for many years to create a global trading network called “Belt and Road Initiative” (abbreviated as BRI) and a major choke point for trade between China and Europe is the Suez Canal as illustrated by the map below:

Map from Wikipedia

At the same time, Saudi Arabia has been planning a giant infrastructure project on the Red Sea near the entrance of the Gulf of Aqaba called NEOM.

NEOM is supposed to be a futuristic city and a “global trade hub” (see image below) conveniently located along the BRI path between China and Europe.

Source: Wikipedia

Up next is a renewed plan to build a competing canal to Egypt’s Suez Canal through Israel, called the Ben Gurion Canal.

China would probably prefer to have an alternative to the Suez Canal, which is quite restrictive with regards to vessel size and also has a complicated one-way system that does not allow ships to transition through the canal in both directions simultaneously. In addition to the practical issues, there are of course also geopolitical implications since the Suez Canal is located in a relatively unstable country like Egypt.

Source: Wikipedia, modified with "Gaza" and arrow.

It doesn’t take a genius to see how the Gaza Strip is blocking a more direct (and thus cheaper) route to the Mediterranean.

So what we have are 3 major geopolitical infrastructure projects by 3 major global and regional players namely China (BRI), Saudi Arabia (NEOM) and Israel (Ben Gurion Canal).

Now let’s look at how these players are able to control the outcome of events.

1. China could be leaning on Iran to pressure Hezbollah into restraint. It’s widely known that Hezbollah is largely financed and controlled by Iran, but it’s also well-known that China buys a lot of Iranian oil therefore China has a lot of leverage over Iran.

2. Saudi Arabia is a large regional player and is able to exert considerable pressure on Jordan and Egypt to remain passive, and perhaps even convince Jordan and Egypt to accept Palestinian refugees fleeing from Gaza.

3. Israel conducts considerable trade with Turkey and has a lot of leverage over Turkey, who’s President Erdogan of course jumped at the opportunity to milk this crisis for some quick political gain.

And of course then there is the good old United States of America, who is caught between a geopolitical rock and a hard place.

In one way the US is of course committed to backing Israel but in another way China’s BRI is a major threat to the US’ global hegemony.

It’s no wonder that US President Biden wants to prevent Israel from permanently occupying the Gaza Strip after their military operation is finished.

Source: ZeroHedge

To summarize, we have a regional conflict where most parties involved would benefit if they prevent things from escalating. Israel will keep on bombing Gaza into oblivion, China will keep Iran/Hezbollah under control, the Saudis will keep Jordan and Egypt under control, Israel will keep Turkey under control, and the US will (try to) keep Israel under control.

The US clearly has the weaker cards here, because the very strong Israeli lobby in the US will preclude the US from exercising any (financial) leverage to prevent Israel from permanently occupying the Gaza Strip in order to make room for a Ben Gurion Canal.

And the European Union you ask? The EU is completely on board with any globalist initiative and will happily accept hundreds of thousands of Palestinian/Gaza refugees if this means improved trade with China.

Please tell me what you think by leaving a comment.

Edit, 9th November 2023: even US vassal state Belgium (host for the NATO, EU, and SWIFT headquarters) has now been instructed by the Biden Administration to tone down it’s unconditional support for Israel because their US neocon masters are slowly waking up to the massive geopolitical (hint: China’s Belt and Road Initiative) implications.

Source: RT.com

Thanks for reading my Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Disclaimer: thoughts are my own, this is not investment or financial advice, but purely for entertainment and philosophical purposes.